Annex A1: updating minimum and maximum numbers during 2025 badger control operations

Question 1

Background

Accepted Answer

In 2025, as in previous years, it became apparent from daily data collected through the course of badger control operations and actual circumstances being observed in the field, that there was a wider variation in badger abundance across the control areas than it had been possible to estimate prior to the control operations. Specifically, some badger control companies were encountering and removing more badgers than expected and some were seeing and removing fewer despite equivalent amounts of effort deployed by similarly trained contractors.

This necessitated updating of the minimum and maximum numbers for ^{[footnote 1]} control areas following the advice published by Defra in December 2025 (Section D)^{[footnote 2]}.

Question 2

Updating numbers in Areas 62 to 72

Accepted Answer

The method used to update the minimum and maximum numbers has not been changed since 2017 but has been improved to听take into account听further data from effective first year control areas^{[footnote 3]} and effective听second,听third and fourth year听control areas in previous years.听听

For all听areas听the minimum and maximum numbers were recalculated using an听historical comparator. Taking data from the previous years鈥� effective control areas, the proportion of the Day 42听cull total that was achieved on each day in each area is calculated, then averaged across areas to generate the historical comparator. This allows the prediction of the expected Day 42 total for any area, from any given day.

The minimum and maximum numbers are then set equidistant around the expected cull total.

The updated minimum and maximum numbers in听10听areas^{[footnote 4]}听were further increased by 1.5% per operational day, to account for their desire to continue beyond 42听days听in order to听maximise disease control on land parcels where factors such as late maize harvest or poor weather conditions hampered coverage.听听

The data used to calculate the minimum and maximum numbers is taken from Day 28 of operations and this data and the resulting updated numbers are presented in Table 1.听

Table 1: Data for updating minimum and maximum numbers in Areas 62 to 73 during 2025 badger control operations.^{[footnote 5]}

Area	Day	Effort	Badgers removed by Day 28	Updated minimum number	Updated maximum number
Area 62 - Buckinghamshire*	28	66.5	150	175	238
Area 63 - Cornwall	28	88.9	148	145	196
Area 64 - Cornwall*	28	77.3	85	87	118
Area 65 - Derbyshire*	28	66.3	253	271	368
Area 66 - Devon*	28	60.8	62	74	101
Area 67 - Hampshire*	28	77.2	89	98	133
Area 68 - Northamptonshire*	28	59.6	409	455	617
Area 69 - Oxfordshire*	28	62.1	120	143	194
Area 70 - Somerset*	28	62.6	53	58	79
Area 71 - Warwickshire*	28	55.0	191	245	332
Area 72 - Warwickshire*	28	40.5	237	356	483
Area 73 - Cumbria	28	104.6	125	N/A	N/A